Our friends in Ukraine must be supported. Besides offering immediate help we also need to understand what makes long-term freedom possible. Here is the English translation of my article published today. Sorry about the language but Google translate does its best.
The weekend concluded a EU summit on the Eastern Partnership. The… idea was to offer Eastern countries such as Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova the possibility of an EU integration process. However, no free trade agreement with Ukraine was agreed upon, and very little progress was made for closing the gap towards the EU. The result was immense pro-EU demonstrations in Kiev, which police are now brutally trying to prevent. In most of these countries, public opinion is largely positive towards the EU and the EU is seen as a symbol of freedom and democracy. But there’s a problem. Russia does not like this. Which means that countries are subjected to oppression, there are problems with oil and gas deliveries, gasstopp and deliveries of merchandise until they surrender for Moscow. Ukraine did surrender before the meeting even had started, this time.
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President Vladimir Putin began during his first presidency an era of Russian recovery and building of a Russian superpower , led by energy companies. The Russian tactic could be summed up with : yesterday tanks – today gas. Energy policy has been used for foreign policy purposes, and energy companies have been the state’s gun. How does it work?
What Kremlin does not like is punished and fought with energy weapons. Since 1991, the country, the world’s largest gas exporter, halted supplies to its neighbors more than 45 times!
For the pressure to be effective, Russia is trying to monopolize the oil and gas pipelines, and buy up as much as possible from other countries’ energy resources . The pattern looks like this: when neighboring countries have economic problems Russia offers ”help.” In exchange for much-needed loans, purchase state-owned energy assets in the neighboring country .
A few examples:
In Armenia, Russia took over Armenian debts and received in exchange a large part of the energy sector. For example, the Russian energy company UES bought the nuclear plant Medzamor. As a thank Russia wrote off debts of 32 million USD. In 2003 Russia also bought six hydroelectric power plants, a termal power plant, and a coal-fired plant . All this was topped off in 2004 when Armenia ‘s nuclear power plants were sold for $ 65 million in debt relief. Prompting the World Bank to warn Armenia to sell additional energy resources to Russia that now owned about 80 percent of the country’s energy producing companies.
In Kyrgyzstan, a share of ownership in the country’s 20 largest industrial companies , was transferred in 2001, including two hydroelectric plants in exchange for ”Russian help”. In 2004 the Russian influence deepened further by the two countries jointly building a hydro power plants (together with UES), and additionally by further investment in Kyrgyzstan’s energy sector.
Baltic countries have also been under pressure to sell their refineries and transfer control over oil and gas pipelines to the Russian capital. For example, Russia tried for years to buy the Lithuanian oil refinery Mazeikiu naphtha. Extortion by loss of oil supplies were part of the permanent recurrent tactic. When the refinery was finally sold to the Polish PKN Orlen, the oil deliveries was permanently shut down.
In 2007 all supplies of coal and oil products to Estonia was disconnected in connection with the ” statue crisis ” in the country. When the same country enacted a law on “immigrants” (affecting ethnic Russians ) – gasstopp. When Georgia chose the ”wrong” Western government – markups of 100 percent. When Ukraine did the same thing – 450 percent. When the planned currency union with Belarus was postponed – markups. When Ukraine did not want to give up control of its transit pipelines – gasstopp.
In the meanwhile Russia is trying to monopolize oil and gas pipelines to Europe and China. From 1999 many different agreements has been written in regards to transporting oil and gas from neighboring countries via Russia. For example, in 2002 a 15-year long agreement for the export of Kazakh oil via Russia was concluded. In case Russia could not monopolize the oil and gas pipelines competing pipelines have been built to reduce the profit for the competitors (Blue Stream), or gas cartel has been formed in order to create ”a common export strategy”.
There are Russia defenders, even in Sweden, claiming that Russian energy claims only involves rational economic strategy without political connection. This is naive. If the tactic is all about making money, it is extremely strange that Gazprom are giving almost free gas to South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Transnistria – that is, the areas that Russia is claiming.
A more sober view of Russia’s energy policy is necessary. Russia uses gas and oil as a weapon to achieve their political goals and as means of extorting its neighbors.
It is necessary to help the countries of the Eastern Partnership to apply for the EU, if they so wish. But in order to do that we must help avoid Russian pressure and blackmail. It can only be done by helping these countries to secure energy resources, supply and infrastructure that is less dependent on Russia.
The single European energy network must be expanded so that countries can quickly export energy and prevent intentional blockage in the gas and oil supplies. It will also allow for energy savings, but more importantly, it will reduce the Russian influence. In this context, the liquidation of Swedish nuclear power is almost foolhardy. It would put also Sweden in a dependent position and create problems here as well. Instead, we must help others to get rid of the Russian pressure.
Ukraine , Moldova, Georgia and other countries that so wish, must be able to move closer to the EU. It is our obligation to help them do it. Not just because we benefit from free trade agreements and export opportunities, but also because it is a matter of human rights and democracy.
Each country must be able to determine where they belong, and who they want to ally with. Europe’s future will be better off if the countries choose their own future rather than if Russia chooses it for them. For freedom is worth more than oil and gas.
Jasenko Selimovic 